METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE ATTRIBUTION OF HYBRID AGGRESSION ACTORS IN THE NATIONAL CYBERSPACE

Abstract

In the context of the ongoing hybrid aggression against Ukraine, the ability to accurately attribute the sources of hostile actions in cyberspace is not merely a technical task but a critical element of national security. This article proposes a solution to the scientific problem of developing a comprehensive methodological framework for the attribution of hybrid threat actors. In the introduction, the author reveals the urgency of the problem, driven by the need for effective counteraction to coordinated cyber and information-psychological operations. An analysis of contemporary research by domestic and foreign scholars shows that existing approaches to attribution are often fragmented, focusing on either technical aspects or content analysis, which necessitates a unified, systemic methodology. The purpose of this work is to develop a holistic methodology for the attribution of hybrid aggression actors, which allows for the integration and synthesis of diverse data to form substantiated conclusions. The theoretical basis of the research includes concepts of hybrid warfare and modern approaches to big data analysis. The methodology involves systemic analysis, the dialectical method, and modeling, which enabled the structuring of the complex, multi-stage attribution process. The key scientific result is the proposed multi-level attribution model, which combines analysis on three levels: technical (analysis of infrastructure, malicious code, and other digital artifacts), tactical (identification of persistent behavioral patterns, tactics, techniques, and procedures), and strategic (analysis of narratives, objectives, and their correlation with the aggressor state's geopolitical interests). The article also formulates a system of criteria for the verification and assessment of the reliability of attribution findings. In the conclusions, the author argues that the proposed model can significantly enhance the evidential value and validity of attribution, providing a deeper understanding of the adversary's strategy. Prospects for further research include the development of applied analytical tools based on artificial intelligence and the study of legal mechanisms for implementing the research results.