NEXT GENERATION PHISHING: THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL ENGINEERING IN THE CONTEXT OF DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.28925/2663-4023.2026.34.1222Keywords:
phishing, social engineering, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, mathematical modelingAbstract
This article analyzes current trends in phishing, including the use of artificial intelligence technologies to automate the creation of phishing content, increase the level of personalization, and optimize attack scenarios. It examines the influence of the human factor as a key vulnerability that determines the effectiveness of social engineering. A quantitative analysis of the dynamics of phishing attacks in recent years is conducted, demonstrating an exponential increase in the number of incidents and indicating the active use of automated tools by cybercriminals. The distribution of channels used to carry out phishing attacks -specifically email, SMS, voice communications, and social networks - was examined separately, allowing for the determination of their relative effectiveness and risk level.
A multifactorial mathematical model for assessing the probability of a phishing attack’s success is proposed, which takes into account the level of security of the information system, the effectiveness of the social engineering methods used, the characteristics of the distribution channel, as well as user behavioral patterns. Unlike existing approaches, the model has been extended by introducing a time-dependent adaptation function, which allows for changes in attack parameters over time. Additionally, elements of probability theory are used to model attack intensity, and the information entropy approach is employed to assess uncertainty in the selection of phishing channels.
The results confirm that modern phishing is a complex, multidimensional threat that combines technical, behavioral, and informational aspects. The proposed model allows for the formalization of the risk assessment process, enables the prediction of attack effectiveness, and can be used to develop adaptive cybersecurity systems. The practical significance of the study lies in the applicability of the results to information security management systems, as well as in raising user awareness of modern social engineering methods.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Ольга Кривокульська, Олеся Яковенко, Ярослав Марченко, Євгеній Якимчук
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